Sunday, February 07, 2010

Sports Book Hustle: The Super Bowl Edition

By Kid Vegas

All right it’s Super Bowl time, what is up with a Feb 7th Super Bowl, Roger Goodell keeps creeping the football season a couple extra days every season and hoping no one will notice. I don’t like it, I want my football season to start the first week of September and end the last week of January, but whatever. Did anyone even watch that Pro Bowl last week, with all the Super Bowl players being out and a lot of good players turning down spots it was more like the mediocre Bowl, does David Garrard now get to call himself a Pro Bowl Quarterback even though he was about the 12th choice? I would vote no, anyway let’s get onto the picks…

Indianapolis (-5) over Nawlins – It’s a foregone conclusion at this point, Peyton Manning is unstoppable this year, the Colts have won every game, the Saints aren’t even that good, they are incredibly lucky, but they had no right winning that game last week, the Colts are better than them in pretty much every aspect of the game, except maybe punt returning. Saints fans still have to be happy, they got further than anyone expected and way further than they should have.

Now let’s jump into some props, keep in mind I’ve never missed my SB prop of the year lock, dating back to when I had a $20 bet on Tom Brady throwing his retard 1-yard screen passes to more than 5 receivers in SB 38 to last year when I bet that Edgerrin James longest run would be shorter than 10 yards, so let’s hope I can extend the streak to 7 years, first a couple of appetizers…

Prop Runner up #2 - Joseph Addai under 80.5 total rushing/receiving yards

Prop Runner up #1 – First touchdown scored of game will be passing touchdown (-180)

And the SB Prop Lock of the Year – Total Sacks by Saints UNDER 1.5 - C’mon Peyton Manning has barely been sacked all year, I would be shocked, SHOCKED I say if the Saints even get to him once, sure he got hit a little by the Jets and the Ravens, but how did that work out for them?? Not well, because the fella DESTROYS the blitz, the Saints know this, they don’t know anything that will work, but at least they know the blitz won’t, they don’t have a strong pass rush, Smith is decent, but against the Colts line I wouldn’t expect anything from their front four. Plus it’s the Super Bowl, Peyton has put it beyond a shadow that he’s the clutchest player in the league this year, he won’t be making any poor decisions in the biggest game of the year. He’s smart, knows when to get rid of the ball, can always feel the pressure coming, never gets injured, and if the game is close he will go out of his way to avoid a sack. No bet is ever a sure thing, but the best chance of this one losing is if the Colts are up by 40 and they put in Painter and the third string O-line, those guys racked up more sacks in one half against the Jets in Week 16 than Peyton did all year.

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